The Colley Team Blog

Market Comment - Week of April 5th, 2010

Mortgage bond prices fell again last week pushing mortgage interest rates higher. The Fed ended the mortgage backed securities purchase program last Wednesday. There was no coincidence that rates spiked higher Thursday morning with the Fed no longer there to buffer negative movements and keep rates in check. Stock strength also pressured bonds as the Dow approached the 11,000 mark. Escalating oil prices also caused rates to spike higher as inflation fears begin to increase. Fortunately the PCE Price Index data came in as expected. Rates rose about 3/4 of a discount point for the week.

The Treasury auctions will once again take center stage this week. If foreign demand is lackluster like the last few auctions we could see that carry over to the mortgage bond market causing rates to spike. The Fed minutes and weekly jobless claims may also move the market this week.


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Economic Factors

Economic Indicator
Release Date Time
Consensus Estimate
Analysis

3-year Treasury Note Auction
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
None
Important. $40 billion of notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.

Fed Minutes
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
None
Important. Details of last Fed meeting. Volatility may surround the release.

Consumer Credit
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
Up $1.6 billion
Low importance. A significantly larger than expected increase may lead to lower mortgage interest rates.

10-year Treasury Note Auction
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
None
Important. $21 billion of notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.

Weekly Jobless Claims
Thursday, April 8, 2010
430k
Moderately Important. An indication unemployment. Higher claims may lead to lower rates.

30-year Treasury Bond Auction
Thursday, April 8, 2010
None
Important. $13 billion of bonds will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.




Treasuries

The 10 and 30-year Treasury bond yields are often viewed as "benchmarks", reflecting the overall state of interest rates in the US economy. Many people concerned about mortgage interest rates track these bonds as a barometer for mortgage interest rates. However, in reality the Treasury and mortgage markets trade independently.

The supply and demand characteristics of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) differ. Treasury securities represent money needed to fund the operations of the US government. MBSs, on the other hand, represent borrowing by homeowners. Demand for mortgage credit is seasonal and is also affected by the state of the overall economy. In terms of demand, Treasury securities are regarded as "risk free" investments, and often benefit from a "flight to quality" in times of financial crisis. Treasury bill, note, and bond prices are dictated by yield requirements and inflationary concerns. Because homeowners can sell or refinance their homes, investors in 30-year mortgage-backed securities usually see principal repayment in significantly shorter periods of time.

In the absence of information directly related to the mortgage interest rate markets, Treasury information can be useful. However, mortgage interest rates can vary significantly. In fact, many times the Treasuries will trade wildly while MBSs only see minor price changes and vice versa.